Monday, April 13, 2020

Simple Math

I am not a statistician, but I would guess there are statisticians working for the CDC and Johns Hopkins/Bloomberg, so I'll use the figures posted on those websites.

One of the most difficult aspects of this lockdown, I believe, has been the undercurrent of doubt, with the cloud of an overriding state of grief, with enduring anxiety of the collapse of the nation's economy.  We are mourning the loss of life while watching our nation crumble and further divide. In seeing all of this devastation, we just know in our spirit, we are not being told the entire story. 

As of 4:52 Monday morning, April 13, 2020. the Coronavirus COVID-19 Dashboard that I have followed since I found it, showed 1,859,011 confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide.  Cases in the US have risen to 557,590 with 22,109 deaths recorded.  According to the site, and basic math, the US has 29.99% of the world's confirmed cases, which is frighteningly close to 1/3!  Every life is important, there's no doubt; but up until two months ago, we knew we couldn't trust politicians or the media.  How do we know we are hearing the truth, now?  Interestingly the Governor that allows abortion through the third trimester, literally stated that if one life is saved through this "shelter in place," the economic cost will be worth it.  Many of our politicians are calling this lockdown a "temporary" inconvenience What the politicians and those associated with W.H.O call "temporary inconvenience," I call "loss of rights," and I'm not convinced that will be temporary!  Yet I digress . . .

I went to the CDC for some statistics, actually a specific one.  Realizing, I've already shared a bit of my own perspective, the following is math, based solely upon the information posted on the CDC website and the website linked in the previous paragraph. 

According to the CDC, 2,839,205 people died in the US in 2018.  When that number is divided by 365, the quotient is: 7778.6.  This figure is the statistical average of the daily mortality rate in America.  On average over 7500 Americans die, daily.  We've lived with that fact, and life has gone on.  I then took the figures in the previous paragraph and did a bit more math, upon checking the first reported death attributed to COVID-19, which was reported on February 29, 2020. 

Based upon the mortality report of 2018, statistically, 334,482 Americans died through the month of March and the first 12 days of April.  In that same time, 43 days, 22,109 Americans died of COVID-19.  The statistics are being registered differently.  Daily averages or annual reports are different than accrual.   

The infection rate has been no where near the projection of the models, but the fear and frustration has been exponential! 

I've been trying to keep record of the many redefinitions that are the fulfillment of Isaiah 5:20, in calling evil good and good evil.  "Shelter in place" is the euphemism/redefinition of "house arrest." 
 

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